Bitcoin price has been on an uptrend for a year now. With the power of this move and the fact that the asset is currently at more than $ 57,000, many people began to question: When to sell?
According to previous bull market data, the last topping and remaining 1/3 of the bullish momentum lasted for just 40 days before it ended. But is it possible to know when this is happening or when it is coming to an end?
The speed and volatility at the top were too fast to be dangerous
Cryptocurrency assets are highly speculative by nature, but are starting to become more solid as adoption increases and proof of feasibility becomes a working product.
However, thanks to the Bitcoin block reward halving every 4 years, so far, market cycles can be accurately calculated.
After each halving, it’s time to stop Bitcoin trading and hold for the next phase instead. However, determining peak times is not so simple.
Measuring and dividing the cycle into 3 parts will see the fastest and most powerful move in the last 1/3. According to the data, these periods and the last 1/3 of a bull cycle occur in just 40 days and nights.
“Aim to sell most of your positions at the top during the third phase of the cycle. Analyzing the previous 2 cycles, you only have ~ 40 days to sell in this area. Both times take place around New Year (December / January). In order to maximize your profits, you should average the most during this 40-day period ”.
Timing of Bitcoin Peak and Cryptocurrency Market Cycle: When to Sell?
Within those 40 days, Bitcoin completed its last parabolic push and a prolonged bearish breakout.
Missing out on this last 1/3 would result in significant losses – almost immediately a 50% drop from the asset’s peak.
The data also shows that assets that went parabolic, once broken, will plunge 80% or more. Commodity trader Peter Brandt correctly predicted the bottom range almost a year ago using these reliable metrics.
In the recent bull market, the price of Bitcoin has dropped from $ 20,000 to just $ 3,000 – leaving many investors stuck in another cycle to lock in profits.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin price also dropped by 80% and is expected to repeat again when this cycle ends. Despite such risks, investors still rush in and try to get out at the right time.
Past cycle peaks are almost always historical in November and December, when the market reaches its cyclical peak. It’s not entirely clear why this is the case, but since this is a widely known fact any peak can be reached first during this bull run.
Other ways to time a top is to watch the monthly RSI hit the highs from previous bull cycles and only then guess where the real peak is.