Tesla confirmed that this organization holds a large amount of Bitcoin

Analysts at Decentrader point to encouraging hodler behavior that suggests that BTC/USD is far from its cycle top at $56,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) shouldn’t have a problem reaching $100,000 during the current cycle thanks to impressive behavior from hodlers.

HODL Waves stay bullish

In their latest newsletter seen by Cointelegraph, analysts from trading suite Decentrader including Cointelegraph Markets contributor filbfilb sought to allay fears that Bitcoin’s bull run is running out of steam.

Backing their optimism, they said, is data showing that more and more investors are hodling BTC for the long term — one year or more.

Taken from the popular “HODL Wave” indicator, this suggests that there is less desire to sell Bitcoin at short notice at a certain price, providing a solid foundation for further growth.

“The 1Yr+ HODL Wave suggests that Bitcoin should comfortably reach the $100,000 level during this cycle,” Decentrader summarized.

“The greater the amount of Bitcoin being held for a year or longer, the less liquid the supply or potential selling pressure there will be. Typically, if 50% or more of Bitcoin is being HODLed the bull market continues, below this is potentially cause for concern.”

HODL Waves tracks the proportion of the existing Bitcoin according to when it was last used in a transaction. Previously, Cointelegraph noted that those who bought BTC during the 2017 bull run had largely held onto their position despite realizing significant gains.

Locking down the BTC supply

As Cointelegraph reported on Monday, roughly 36% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently made up of “younger” coins which have moved at some point in the past six months.

Exchange data further reinforces the pro-hodl mindset among investors, as overall reserves continue to plummet in March despite BTC/USD making a new all-time high.

Even miners appear to be increasingly interested in keeping their BTC rewards, as evidenced by figures from on-chain analytics service Glassnode showing net miner positions turning positive this month. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, described their behavior as “onlyrational.”

“Strong holders are increasing their positions. Another sharp increase of #Bitcoin in the illiquid wallets,” quant analyst Lex Moskovski commented on another Glassnode chart.

Elon Musk, CEO and “Technoking” of Tesla, became the most recent high-profile hodler when he announced on Wednesday that the carmaker would offer products for BTC and not convert the revenue to fiat.

According to Bitcointreasuries.org, Tesla currently holds an estimated 48,000 BTC, a number that should grow as people exchange their Bitcoin for the company’s electric vehicles.

Data shows multiple peaks of Bitcoin over the past 40 days and when to sell Bitcoin

Bitcoin price has been on an uptrend for a year now. With the power of this move and the fact that the asset is currently at more than $ 57,000, many people began to question: When to sell?

According to previous bull market data, the last topping and remaining 1/3 of the bullish momentum lasted for just 40 days before it ended. But is it possible to know when this is happening or when it is coming to an end?

The speed and volatility at the top were too fast to be dangerous
Cryptocurrency assets are highly speculative by nature, but are starting to become more solid as adoption increases and proof of feasibility becomes a working product.

However, thanks to the Bitcoin block reward halving every 4 years, so far, market cycles can be accurately calculated.

After each halving, it’s time to stop Bitcoin trading and hold for the next phase instead. However, determining peak times is not so simple.

Measuring and dividing the cycle into 3 parts will see the fastest and most powerful move in the last 1/3. According to the data, these periods and the last 1/3 of a bull cycle occur in just 40 days and nights.

“Aim to sell most of your positions at the top during the third phase of the cycle. Analyzing the previous 2 cycles, you only have ~ 40 days to sell in this area. Both times take place around New Year (December / January). In order to maximize your profits, you should average the most during this 40-day period ”.

Two crypto cycles in 2013 and 2017 | Source: TradingView

Timing of Bitcoin Peak and Cryptocurrency Market Cycle: When to Sell?

Within those 40 days, Bitcoin completed its last parabolic push and a prolonged bearish breakout.

Missing out on this last 1/3 would result in significant losses – almost immediately a 50% drop from the asset’s peak.

The data also shows that assets that went parabolic, once broken, will plunge 80% or more. Commodity trader Peter Brandt correctly predicted the bottom range almost a year ago using these reliable metrics.

In the recent bull market, the price of Bitcoin has dropped from $ 20,000 to just $ 3,000 – leaving many investors stuck in another cycle to lock in profits.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin price also dropped by 80% and is expected to repeat again when this cycle ends. Despite such risks, investors still rush in and try to get out at the right time.

Past cycle peaks are almost always historical in November and December, when the market reaches its cyclical peak. It’s not entirely clear why this is the case, but since this is a widely known fact any peak can be reached first during this bull run.

Other ways to time a top is to watch the monthly RSI hit the highs from previous bull cycles and only then guess where the real peak is.

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History of Bitcoin: An overview of investor groups

Bitcoin’s recent volatility in value is just a series of the newest and spectacular highs and lows since it was created in 2009. (Despite its recent fall, BTC is still five times higher. times since April 2018, before making a new peak).

Critics often boycott Bitcoin buyers, seeing them as innocent victims of the fraud bubble. But if we look carefully, we can track Bitcoin price history through 5 aspects. Each aspect reflects a different group of buyers and the contribution to long-term value growth.


Bitcoin grew out of a small group of cryptologists trying to solve the “double spending” problem of digital money: “cash” stored in a file format can be easily copied and used over and over again. This problem is easily resolved by financial institutions, but cryptographers want a solution more like physical money: private, untraceable, and independent from third parties like the row.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s solution is the Bitcoin blockchain, an encrypted, secure public wallet that records anonymous transactions and stores it in multiple copies on multiple computers. This early Bitcoin feature is described in Nakamoto’s original White paper. It argues that Bitcoin will dominate existing forms of cryptocurrencies such as credit cards, which are more advantageous in limiting reverse fees on buyers and reducing transaction fees.


From the outset, Nakamoto also promoted Bitcoin as a freelance audience. He did this by emphasizing the lack of central government involvement and the independence of Bitcoin’s own from both government and financial institutions.

Nakamoto criticized the central bank for devaluing the currency by issuing more money, and designed Bitcoin to have a finite amount at issue. He also emphasized the anonymity of Bitcoin transactions: safe, if more or less, from the prying eyes of the authorities. Liberals become ardent buyers and advocates of Bitcoin, not rebels for financial reasons. They have maintained a major influence in the Bitcoin community.

Young understanding

However, these are still small elements, and Bitcoin only really took off in July 2010 when a brief article on Slashdot.org was addressed to young and tech-savvy people. This community was influenced by the “Cali Idea” – which believed in the ability of technology and entrepreneurship to change the world.

Many people have bought small quantities at low prices and are also a bit hesitant to find themselves again as their investments have multiplied. They are increasingly volatile by its price and often favor “holding” Bitcoin (a word commonly used by traders). Holder stressed that the Bitcoin price would “to the moon” (from being said 178,000 times in bitcoin forums), and said he would take the lamborghini cars from the profits. Unreasonable taxation hurts the community and a commitment to hold Bitcoin maintains its value.


The remaining two groups contribute to the history of Bitcoin more conventionally. The fourth group consists of investors who are attracted to Bitcoin’s volatility and price peaks.

On the one hand, we have day traders who want to exploit the volatility of Bitcoin’s price by buying and selling very quickly to take advantage of short-term price moves. Like all investors in other asset classes, they have no real return in the big picture or intrinsic value but just the price of the current day. They only have the extreme “buy” and “sell”, in order to try to influence the market.

On the other hand, we have people drawn by price bubble news. In essence, the category of bubbles in the press is often designed to discourage investors from potentially having the opposite effect. These investors participate in a “beauty contest” in Keynesian parlance – they are only interested in what others are prepared to pay for Bitcoin in the short to medium term.

Those who balance categories

The last and newest group for Bitcoin investors are portfolio balancers: more complex investors buy Bitcoin to prevent potential risks in the financial system. According to modern portfolio theory, investors can reduce the risk of their portfolios overall by buying Bitcoin because its peaks and lows are not aligned with their other assets. This is how to protect when the market collapses. This group is emerging, but is likely to promote Bitcoin’s acceptability among mainstream investors.

Bitcoin’s price will accordingly be shaped on a series of aspects that it draws from the wave of buyers’ success. While mainstream critics often boycott Bitcoin because it lacks intrinsic value, the market value of the asset depends on the handling of such aspects.

Bitcoin may collapse again, but like any other asset. Investing in Bitcoin also can’t risk more or less than investing in tech companies that are on the stock exchange without ever making a profit.

Has Bitcoin price reached new all-time highs?

Bitcoin’s price has risen to new highs across many exchanges but it has yet to break December 2017’s all-time high at Coinbase.

BTC price hit $ 19,873 on Coinbase yesterday (Nov. 30), breaking above $ 19,000 in an incredible rally. Although many in the crypto sector claim that Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, that is yet to happen.

On Coinbase, Bitcoin peaked at $ 19,891 in December 2017. The all-time high on Coinbase is particularly important as it has consistently maintained as the top US exchange for several last year.

Monthly BTC / USD chart at Coinbase | Source: TradingView

In terms of historical data, some of the top exchanges like Binance were launched in mid-2017. One argument can be made that an exchange that has been around since 2012 makes more sense, Coinbase exchange remains one of the primary exchanges used by retail investors.

Bitcoin’s all-time high varies between exchanges

2017 was a turbulent period for cryptocurrencies. By the time Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, it has seen price swings from 30% to 50% in a week due to the cryptocurrency exchange market showing a lack of liquidity.

Currently, the record high spreads close to $ 300 between exchanges. For example, on Kraken and Bitstamp, Bitcoin peaked at $ 19,660 and $ 19,666, respectively. Yesterday, Bitcoin price hit new all-time highs on both exchanges.

On Binance and Huobi, Bitcoin made highs at $ 19,799 and $ 19,867, both on November 30.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has yet to hit new record highs on Bitfinex, Coinbase, and Gemini, which are also known as whale exchanges due to their high liquidity.

In 2017, Coinbase was the leading exchange in terms of trading volume and, in the mind of many traders, seeing prices break past all-time highs would provide further confirmation that the bull market was correct. wake up.

For many traders, $ 20,000 is a hurdle that needs to be broken as it will officially concretize a new all-time high for the top-ranked digital asset.

A trader known as ‘Bitcoin Jack’ has identified Bitfinex as the most liquid exchange in the ongoing rally. Hence, considering the record highs of Gemini and Coinbase near Bitfinex, the $ 19,873 level exactly makes up the all-time high. He say:

“Be careful when the liquidity on open contract (OI) has been affected on most exchanges. Meaning, until liquidity is added, the amount of liquidity relative to OI is relatively low, allowing for less restrained outflows for both sides. As always, Bitfinex is the king of liquidity”.

What’s next for Bitcoin price?

On-chain analysts, including CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, have predicted that whales will try to front-run the all-time high and apply substantial selling pressure.

As Bitcoin neared record highs on Coinbase, a sudden sell-off occurred, sending Bitcoin to as low as $ 18,998 within two hours.

After the high volatility and whale-induced sell-off, the futures market’s OI was hit and the exchange’s order books were thwarted.

There are two short-term scenarios that Bitcoin could see following its first attempt to break out of its all-time highs.

Firstly, momentum is likely to continue on Asian markets in today’s morning session and this could boost buyers’ demand again.

Second, Bitcoin can consolidate below an all-time high of $ 19,873, which can range from $ 19,000 to $ 19,873. This scenario is most ideal for Bitcoin to see a sustained rally, as it would prevent the derivative market from overheating.

Bitcoin price sits at $ 15500 when there are many Bitcoin whales selling

Bitcoin whales sold the highest amount of BTC since March, which is a bullish sign for BTC price based on previous market cycles.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed $15,500 on Nov. 11 after whales sold the highest amount of BTC since March. In the past cycles, the dominant cryptocurrency typically rallied after a sell-off from whales.

On March 12, for instance, the All Exchanges Inflow Mean (MA7) indicator hit 3. At the time, BTC declined to as low as $3,596 on BitMEX after seeing cascading liquidations.

Since then, the MA7 has never increased above 1.7. On Nov. 11, for the first time since March, the MA7 neared 2. This indicates that whales sold a significant amount of BTC in the past few days.

All Exchanges Inflow Mean. Source: CryptoQuant

Why does big Bitcoin sell-off indicate a bull trend?

Bitcoin whales, or high-net-worth individuals who hold large amounts of BTC, do not necessarily short BTC because they are bearish.

Many whales prefer to take profits amidst a bull run and build up positions along the way. This is because whales trade substantially larger positions than most retail traders. As such, they seek liquidity and high buyer demand to sell or adjust their positions.

Bitcoin tends to rally after a whale-induced sell-off as it decreases selling pressure on the cryptocurrency in the short to medium term.

While the Bitcoin market has become more evenly balanced among retail traders, institutions, and whales, high-net-worth individuals still impact the market.

Ki Young Ju, the CEO at CryptoQuant, emphasized that Bitcoin has historically rallied after “victim whales” deposit BTC to exchanges. He wrote:

“The buy-the-dip indicator. Buy $BTC when victim whales deposited to exchanges after the plunge.”

Bitcoin has seen extreme volatility in the past week, possibly as a result of whales taking profits. However, every major dip was aggressively bought up by other whales and retail investors.

Major Bitcoin dips bought up since early November. Source: TradingView.com

BTC recorded large drops on Nov. 8, Nov. 10 and Nov. 11. Bitcoin recovered from every pullback with strength, rebounding to previous support levels within a matter of hours.

On-chain fundamentals are also highly positive

Atop the favorable technical structure of Bitcoin, on-chain fundamentals signify an overall bullish outlook.

According to Glassnode’s data, the number of active Bitcoin addresses achieved a multi-year high. Elias Simos, Bison Trails protocol operations manager, said:

“Did you know that $BTC active addresses hit a multi-year high this week, and are now at Jan-2018 bubble top levels? In the chain’s entire history, it’s only been about 1.5 months that aa’s stood at > 1M. How about that.”

Daily active addresses is an important on-chain metric for Bitcoin because it could indicate two key trends.

The number of active Bitcoin addresses. Source: Glassnode

First, retail investors might be increasingly accumulating BTC and transferring to personal wallets. This shows an intent to “HODL” Bitcoin for a prolonged period.

Second, there could be an increase in over-the-counter (OTC) deals, particularly among whales and high-net-worth individuals.

The combination of positive technical and fundamental trends raises the probability of a broader rally before the end of the year. With the halving occurring just 6 months ago, the chances of a more sustainable uptrend remain high.

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Have you ever rode the Kingda Ka at Six Flags Great Adventure?
If you have, you might understand how it feels to HODL Bitcoin.

Just recently in one-month Bitcoin’s price rose over 10,000 dollars
only to fall more than 10,000 dollars the following month.

A twitter-verse full of financial advisors all have their theories but we here at Cointelegraph felt it was time for a more clinical approach.

So, what exactly are the factors that influence Bitcoin’s price?
Demand and Supply: This factor is major.

Nowadays, Bitcoin does not have any physical equivalent in the real world, so BTC are sold on exchanges.

The main principle of economics says that if people buy a currency, its price rises and if people sell the currency, its price falls.

Bitcoin is no exception.

That is how we find ourself in the world of bulls and bears and whales, oh my!

The total amount of Bitcoin Holders: The total amount of Bitcoins is 21 mln, but they are produced with time.

Currently, there are about 17 mln BTC and more than 14 mln people have wallets with BTC.

This number is growing rapidly and since the number of Bitcoins is fixed, the price will continue to rise.

News and Mass Media: There’s always a human factor involved – i.e. the way people can react to the news.

This type of news has been dubbed FUD by the cryptocurrency community which means ‘fear uncertainty and doubt.’

When FUD hits, the price of Bitcoin inevitably takes a hit as well as was seen this past January when news of Korean regulation hit the papers.

Regulation: In the age of globalization, decisions in just one country can have an influence on the entire world – i.e. accepting Bitcoin as a means of payment in Japan.

The greatest problem with predicting Bitcoin’s price is that the factors which influence it are hard to predict.

Because of this, we recommend that instead of trying to predict the whims of the world in the future, look backwards.

Look at the financial crisis of 2008, look at governments who keep a stranglehold on the poor and the hyperinflation that impacts countries all over the world.

Look at the way money has been handled, manipulated and abused over the past 100 years.

If you do that, you’ll stop worrying about Bitcoin’s price and start being hopeful for how it will change the world.

Why does the legal action against BitMEX and hacking KuCoin have no effect on Bitcoin price?

Everyone knows the BitMEX situation after CTO Samuel Reed was arrested on October 1. The implications of this are enormous, however, the traders’ perspectives give us a different perspective.

OI on BitMEX decreased before the exchange was ‘touched’ by authorities. However, for now, the OI has decreased enough for its competitors to take its place. As of today, ByBit has surpassed BitMEX in OI.

Source: ByBt

Now, BitMEX has slipped to 3rd place with Binance still holding the top spot.

Perhaps, the BitMEX wallet has been hit the hardest due to the aforementioned problem. The wallet balance has decreased from about 200 thousand BTC to 100 thousand BTC.

Source: CoinMetrics

This drop comes even though BitMEX broke the “traditional once-a-day process of withdrawals” and did 6 times in 2 days to reassure traders that the funds were ‘SAFU’.

If the above two points did not trigger a exodus of traders, then perhaps, it could. One of the top traders on BitMEX “Mercury-Wood-Sprite” may have left the platform. This trader last updated on October 2, one day after the BitMEX CTO was arrested.

Source: ByBt

Will the BitMEX case combined with the KuCoin hack affect Bitcoin price?

While BitMEX has faced massive US legal action, KuCoin has suffered a substantial hack, all within a period of a few days – but why these events have not affected Bitcoin price in a more negative way?

Aleks Svetski, CEO of Bitcoin investment app Amber, said it involves a number of factors, including large players buying Bitcoin.

“The price of Bitcoin is a function of global demand for a tight supply, does not change and decreases according to schedule,” said Aleks Svetski, referring to halving the money supply of the asset and mining .

“As more people, especially large-scale institutions seek to buy back some coins, it not only creates the floor price, but also continues to increase the upward pressure, and ultimately, new players. These are all holding Bitcoin outside of exchanges, and therefore it is not available for sale on the market. ”

Over the course of 2020, several major players publicly announced massive Bitcoin purchases, including MicroStrategy, Paul Tudor Jones, Square and most recently Stone Ridge.

Contrary to the bullish price action, exchange KuCoin has been hit by a hack totaling more than $ 100 million. A few days later, the authorities of the US government took legal action against the BitMEX exchange, arresting one of its leaders.

However, neither of these events has caused Bitcoin to fall into a downtrend. Bitcoin did not drop significantly according to KuCoin news and only dropped a few hundred dollars when BitMEX news came out – a relatively small response to an important news event. Conversely, after the price action has been sideways for a number of days, the asset starts its journey up from the consolidation level.

“This is setting up for an unusual race and hacking the exchange, delaying stimulus or state policy won’t be able to hold it back.”

Should put 5% of Bitcoin in your portfolio, Fidelity said

New research from Fidelity shows that Bitcoin is uniquely isolated from the movement of other asset classes and suggests how it fits into your portfolio.

Bitcoin has been operating unlike any other investment asset available on the market for the past five years, operating almost entirely independently, according to financial services giant Fidelity.

Fidelity Digital Assets, Fidelity’s crypto-focused arm, said today in a report that Bitcoin has virtually no relationship to the profits generated by other asset classes, including gold. and US stocks.

Furthermore, its report, part two of the company’s Bitcoin Investment Thesis, shows that investors hold 5% of their holdings in Bitcoin when exposed to alternative investments. It’s another indication that institutions are warming up digital gold and is taking note of its ability to provide unrelated profits regardless of external conditions.

The study for the Fidelity report was conducted by interviewing investors and industry experts from companies like ARK Invest, CoinShares and Fidelity Investments. In it, the company makes its case for “Bitcoin’s role as an alternative investment”.

Substitute investments are considered to differ from positions in public shares or fixed income instruments such as bonds. These asset classes provide a unique level of risk that is expected to change in price independent of other asset classes. According to Fidelity, alternative investments rose from 6 percent of the global investment market in 2003 to 12 percent in 2018 and are expected to grow to 25 percent by 2025.

Alternative assets appeal to investors with a multi-asset portfolio that has a diverse mix of stocks, bonds, and other holdings as they are more likely to retain greater value when traditional holdings are less effective. Multiple asset classes provide a smooth return over time, at the cost of missing out on a higher potential return if one or more specific assets outperform the market.

Fidelity research shows that Bitcoin as an investment vehicle has a correlation of just 0.11 with other assets on a 30-day rotating average from January 2015 to September 2020. The relationship ranges from 1 to -1, based on whether asset prices move step by step or not with content that is completely correlated or completely opposite to completely uncorrelated content.

The .11 score means that Bitcoin’s price has neither increased nor decreased from any asset class in 30 days, including asset classes like gold or the US stock market, which are often compared alongside BTC. Fidelity found that, over time, Bitcoin’s price changes have little to do with what other assets are doing, even when movements are sometimes correlated in the short term.

Based on their research, Fidelity recommends keeping 5% of the value in a multi-asset portfolio in Bitcoin as a means to reap greater returns over time regardless of market conditions.

“Consider a portfolio with a target allocation of 5% bitcoin,” the company said. If Bitcoin’s allocation rises above that mark, the company recommends selling some of those Bitcoins to rebalance your portfolio. If it falls below that mark, investors should buy. “One advantage of the rebalance is that it forces investors to buy low and sell high,” Fidelity said.

With the August launch of the Fidelity Bitcoin Index Fund, Fidelity continues to create a strong bull case for institutional investors participating in Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin is a single investable asset with an attractive difference from traditional asset classes as well as conventional alternative investments that could make it a beneficial addition to the reputation. investment item ”, the company’s report concluded.